H-1B Lottery Odds by Salary
How your offered wage affects selection probability
Key finding: Under the weighted H-1B lottery system, a Level 4 wage (senior-level salary) gives you approximately a 52% chance of selection, compared to just 14% for a Level 1 wage (entry-level). Your salary relative to the prevailing wage for your occupation and location is now the single biggest factor in your lottery odds.
Selection rates by wage level
Level 1 - Entry
17th percentile of prevailing wages
Level 2 - Qualified
34th-50th percentile of prevailing wages
Level 3 - Experienced
50th-67th percentile of prevailing wages
Level 4 - Fully Competent
67th+ percentile of prevailing wages
Example scenarios
Here are estimated odds for common roles and locations. Your actual wage level depends on the specific prevailing wage for your SOC code and metropolitan area.
| Role | Salary | Lvl | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Software EngineerAustin, TX | $75,000 | 1 | ~14% |
| Software EngineerChicago, IL | $95,000 | 2 | ~25% |
| Senior Software EngineerSan Francisco, CA | $155,000 | 3 | ~38% |
| Staff EngineerNew York, NY | $200,000 | 4 | ~52% |
| Data ScientistSeattle, WA | $130,000 | 2 | ~25% |
| Product ManagerBoston, MA | $160,000 | 4 | ~52% |
| Financial AnalystMiami, FL | $65,000 | 1 | ~14% |
| Mechanical EngineerDetroit, MI | $85,000 | 2 | ~25% |
The US Master's degree boost
Holding a US master's degree or higher adds a meaningful boost at every wage level. The effect is most dramatic for lower wage levels:
| Wage Level | Without Master's | With US Master's | Boost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level 1 | ~14% | ~26% | +12% |
| Level 2 | ~25% | ~37% | +12% |
| Level 3 | ~38% | ~49% | +11% |
| Level 4 | ~52% | ~60% | +8% |
How to maximize your odds
- Negotiate the highest possible salary. This is the most direct lever. Moving from Level 1 to Level 4 can nearly quadruple your odds.
- Consider work location strategically. The same $100K salary might be Level 2 in California but Level 4 in a lower-cost state. Prevailing wages vary significantly by metropolitan area.
- Pursue a US advanced degree. The two-pool advantage is substantial. If you are currently studying, completing a master's at a US institution gives you a meaningful edge.
- Ensure correct registration. Work with your employer and attorney to make sure the offered wage, SOC code, and worksite location are accurately reported. Errors can invalidate your registration or misclassify your wage level.
- Plan for multiple years. Many successful H-1B holders were not selected on their first try. Maintain your current visa status and plan to re-enter the lottery each year.
Check your specific odds
Enter your actual salary, state, and degree to get a personalized estimate.
Use the calculator →